Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
